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Institute for the Modelling of Socio-Environmental Transitions

Institute for the Modelling of Socio-Environmental Transitions

The Institute for the Modelling of Socio-Environmental Transitions (IMSET) addresses one of the most significant global challenges facing humanity today: how we manage and respond to environmental change

The Institute for the Modelling of Socio-Environmental Transitions (IMSET) addresses one of the most significant global challenges facing humanity today: how we manage and respond to environmental change. It does this by exploring how past societies were affected by environmental change, how they responded to these challenges and, therefore, what are the most sustainable options available to present-day societies under similar pressures. This will be achieved through the application of bespoke statistical and numerical modelling to archaeological, anthropological and past environmental data.

We live in an era of unprecedented environmental transformation including rapid change in global climate and land cover; increasing pollution and biodiversity loss; and widespread environmental degradation. While some environmental variability is natural, human activities are causing additional physical, chemical and biological changes, often at scales and speeds never before encountered. Concern with regard to these changes was raised recently by international organisations such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) who highlighted the severity of the threat to human society from environmental change and biodiversity loss.

IPCC special report findings

1.5°C
Global warming is likely to reach 1.5°C between 2030 and 2052 if it continues to increase at the current rate.
0.77 m
Sea levels are expected to rise by 0.26 m to 0.77 m by 2100 for every for 1.5°C of global warming.
8%
Of the 105,000 species studied by the IPCC, 6% of insects, 8% of plants and 4% of vertebrates are projected to lose over half of their natural habitats for global warming of 1°C

Learning from the past

We know that many past societies faced environmental change. While some were able to successfully respond and adapt to this (such as the Inuit), others were not (for example the Easter Islanders). While modern societies possess many distinctive features, associated particularly with rapid technological development, they share many characteristics with societies of the past; for example, around two billion people currently survive as 'smallholder' farmers. IMSET will use archaeological, anthropological and past environmental data to understand how societies were affected by environmental change and how they responded to it. By using these techniques, the team will be able to answer questions such as what kinds of land use practices, technological developments, or societal organisation were associated with resilience under scenarios of environmental stress, and which proved less successful. By understanding how human societies responded to climate change in the past, IMSET's research will provide insights into how modern societies can adapt to the challenges facing them.

The Institute is directed by Dr Emma Jenkins of the Department of Archaeology & Anthropology and co-directed by Dr Fiona Coward (Department of Archaeology & Anthropology) and Professor Adrian Newton (Department of Life & Environmental Science).

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