Dorset Economic Blog

16/03/2023

Dorset Economy blog 41: The only certainty is uncertainty

BU's emeritus Professor Nigel Jump comments on the March 2023 budget

10/03/2023

Dorset Economy blog 40: Stock Markets & Local Economic Development

What role do stock markets play in local economics. Read Professor Nigel Jump's latest blog about the Dorset economy.

06/02/2023

Dorset Economy blog 39: Macro Blues & Micro Bounce?

This month, Nigel talks about the highs and lows of Dorset's economy, and how productivity plays its part.

09/01/2023

Dorset Economy blog 38: Forward Focus for the Local Labour Market

Professor Nigel Jump writes about the year ahead and the need for productivity-led growth in Dorset.

02/12/2022

Dorset Economy blog 37: New Modus Operandi?

Inflation is a big problem for the UK economy this Winter. BU's Professor Nigel Jump shares his thoughts on the route forward.

09/11/2022

Dorset Economy blog 36: Current Crises and Beyond

Professor Nigel Jump writes the next in his economic blog series, and the current political context is still playing a part in the state of the economy.

27/09/2022

Dorset Economy blog 35: Policies for Stagflation

A new government but similar problems - and how do we all respond to the latest set of policies for stagflation.

20/09/2022

Dorset Economic Blog 34: Era of Change

We are passing through a time of great change affecting labour, trade, and living standards. The issue is whether that change will support future progress.

23/08/2022

Dorset Economy blog 33: REAP WHAT YOU SOW

Emeritus Professor Nigel Jump shares his latest blog on the Dorset economic landscape, the realities of stagflation, and the need for political leadership.

06/07/2022

Dorset Economic Blog 32: Stagflation and Development

We are in an economic era of stagflation (persistently lower than trend growth with higher than trend inflation) set in an era of disruptive politics.

20/06/2022

Dorset Economy blog 31: Outcomes and Outlooks Mid-2022

The latest data on growth, especially retail sales volumes of goods, suggests a recession is nearer than we hoped, especially for items of discretionary spending. At such times, it is important to address three issues: short term pressures and needs; long term trends and goals; and barriers to trade.

23/05/2022

Dorset Economy blog 30: War and Economics

In response to war in Ukraine, the global economy, already vulnerable to the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, has taken another body blow, as reflected in this month’s weakness of global stock markets in the face of even more supply chain disruption.

12/04/2022

Dorset Economy blog 29: Waves of Uncertainty

In this blog, Professor Jump focuses on levelling up, recent evidence within the UK economy, fiscal policy and the impact of war in Ukraine.

07/03/2022

Dorset Economy blog 28: Levelling Up: a new wrapper for regional economic development?

In the period ahead, the government seems to suggest its main pillar of UK regional economic policy will be the (recently released) “Levelling Up White Paper” (LU).

03/02/2022

Dorset Economy blog 27: New World Order

As real incomes suffer, 2022 may reveal an economy that is smaller than it could have been without the effects of the pandemic.

06/01/2022

Dorset Economy blog 26: Early January 2022

Welcome to 2022. After two difficult years, we seem to be entering another of high economic uncertainty in which the recovery looks fragile, at best.

09/12/2021

Dorset Economy blog 25: The End of a Difficult Year

In early November, the Bank of England left official interest rates unchanged at an extremely low 0.1% base rate. This was a surprise – the markets had priced in a symbolic but minuscule increase to a rate of 0.25%.

28/10/2021

Dorset Economy blog 24: Fiscal 2021

BU’s Emeritus Professor Nigel Jump writes the next in a series of economic blogs looking at the impact of covid-19 on the economy.

30/09/2021

Dorset Economy blog 23: Outlook, Values & Skills

The regional economy grew, albeit at a slower pace, in August and early September, suggesting, in response to various bottlenecks, that the recovery persists but has become less vigorous.

13/09/2021

Dorset Economic blog 22: Ready for Autumn

After the relaxation of many pandemic rules, the UK economy bounced up by 4.8% in Q2 2021. The uptick was led by consumer services, including hospitality and leisure, as well as some construction and production.

03/08/2021

Dorset Economic blog 21: Money, Inflation & Growth

BU's Emeritus Professor Nigel Jump writes the next in a series of economic blogs looking at the impact of Covid-19 on the economy.

06/07/2021

Dorset Economic blog 20: Misery and Renewal

Some years ago, a Misery Index was invented (by Okun) to give politicians and policymakers a simple tool to measure current economic performance. Currently, the UK misery index is 2.1% inflation (CPIH measure) plus 4.7% unemployment, giving 6.8% overall.

09/06/2021

Dorset Economic blog 19: Anniversary Economic Assessment

It is now a year since BU started providing these economy blogs to those interested in local business and sector.

19/05/2021

Dorset Economic blog 18: Inflation Prospects

BU's Emeritus Professor Nigel Jump writes the next in a series of economic blogs looking at the impact of covid-19 on the economy.

21/04/2021

Dorset Economic blog 17: Productivity & Pandemic Scarring

Despite new technology, UK productivity, (as usually measured, such as output per hour worked), has been stagnant for a couple of decades. As a result, the earnings distribution has become more unequal.

30/03/2021

Dorset Economic blog 16: Choice and Value

Economics is the study of choice: how human beings/societies allocate scarce resources (natural, intellectual, physical and temporal) to create individual utility and collective well-being.

03/03/2021

Dorset Economic blog 15: National Budget 2021

The political drama of the national budget was intensified this year by the pandemic, Brexit and climate change.

24/02/2021

Dorset Economic blog 14: Flows and Assets

In 2020, the UK economy, measured by real GDP, shrank by 9.9%. This was by far the biggest drop ever recorded in a calendar year, taking some £260bn off annual UK output.

01/02/2021

Dorset Economic blog 13: Local and Global Factors for Recovery

BU's Emeritus Professor Nigel Jump writes the next in a series of economic blogs looking at the impact of covid-19 on the economy.

08/01/2021

Dorset Economic blog 12: Economy & Environment - Opportunity after Brexit

In this post-Brexit world, even if the deal is better than no deal, the pandemic finds us in what has been described as an “illusion drenched in nostalgia”.

16/12/2020

Dorset Economic Blog 11: trade and growth

Ahead of Christmas, the BCP and Dorset economy is struggling with its Tier 2 designation that allows most businesses to operate but confronts many with restrictions to prevent the spread of the virus in social/group situations.

26/11/2020

Dorset Economic blog 10: Productivity and the Spending Review

The latest figures show unemployment and inflation rates both rising: the former moving to 4.8% (3 months to September) and the latter at 0.9% (CPIH, year to October).

02/11/2020

Dorset Economic blog 9: Socio-Economic Inequality and State Engagement

The winds are stronger. The days are colder and wetter. Because of the pandemic, winter seems to be coming on rapidly this year. This is not helped by a mindset of socio-economic gloom linked, of course, to the possibility of a renewed “lockdown downturn”.

08/10/2020

Dorset Economic blog 8: Values & Aims

Short term indicators are still positive, but momentum is dropping. Q3 output will have finished well up on Q2’s level but still well down on Q1.

16/09/2020

Dorset Economic blog 7: Supply & Demand

The world economy has bounced up from Q2’s Covid-19 lows, but momentum is fragile. Much of the bounce is pent-up demand for the short-term, rather than renewed growth for the long run.

02/09/2020

Dorset Economic blog 6: Regional Development

The 2020 economic crisis hit output and employment by deliberately shutting down activity to support public health. The resulting recession puts financial pressure on many households and businesses.

17/08/2020

Dorset Economic blog 5: Money & Finance

In response to the financial crisis of 2008+, the G20 came together to save the banking system and prevent a wider economic depression.

27/07/2020

Dorset economic blog 4: Impact and Strategy

After a fall in real GDP of 2.2% in Q1, the economy dropped further in Q2, although, on a monthly basis, things appear to have been slightly better in June than in April.

13/07/2020

Dorset economic blog three: Policy & Recovery

Many are expecting the unprecedented, economic dip (Q2 2020) to have been up to 25% below the recent peak (Q4 2019) in terms of output (real GDP). A modest recovery may already be underway, but a return to ‘normal’ is not expected soon.

22/06/2020

Dorset Economic blog two: The Lockdown Recovery

The second quarter of 2020 (April-June, Q2) will be the worst for UK economic growth of any previously experienced by the vast majority of people alive today. It will see something in the region of a 10-25% decline in GDP (-20.4% in April).