Dorset Economic Blog

Started in June 2020, this series of blogs from BU’s Emeritus Professor Nigel Jump has examined the impact of Covid-19 on the economy through lockdowns and shifting circumstances.

Dorset Economy blog 31: Outcomes and Outlooks Mid-2022

The latest data on growth, especially retail sales volumes of goods, suggests a recession is nearer than we hoped, especially for items of discretionary spending. At such times, it is important to address three issues: short term pressures and needs; long term trends and goals; and barriers to trade.

Dorset Economy blog 30: War and Economics

In response to war in Ukraine, the global economy, already vulnerable to the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, has taken another body blow, as reflected in this month’s weakness of global stock markets in the face of even more supply chain disruption.

Dorset Economic blog 22: Ready for Autumn

After the relaxation of many pandemic rules, the UK economy bounced up by 4.8% in Q2 2021. The uptick was led by consumer services, including hospitality and leisure, as well as some construction and production.

Dorset Economic blog 20: Misery and Renewal

Some years ago, a Misery Index was invented (by Okun) to give politicians and policymakers a simple tool to measure current economic performance. Currently, the UK misery index is 2.1% inflation (CPIH measure) plus 4.7% unemployment, giving 6.8% overall.

Dorset Economic Blog 11: trade and growth

Ahead of Christmas, the BCP and Dorset economy is struggling with its Tier 2 designation that allows most businesses to operate but confronts many with restrictions to prevent the spread of the virus in social/group situations.

Dorset economic blog three: Policy & Recovery

Many are expecting the unprecedented, economic dip (Q2 2020) to have been up to 25% below the recent peak (Q4 2019) in terms of output (real GDP). A modest recovery may already be underway, but a return to ‘normal’ is not expected soon.

Dorset Economic blog two: The Lockdown Recovery

The second quarter of 2020 (April-June, Q2) will be the worst for UK economic growth of any previously experienced by the vast majority of people alive today. It will see something in the region of a 10-25% decline in GDP (-20.4% in April).

Dorset economic blog one: The Lockdown Recession

Last autumn (2019), the UK economy looked flat and fears of recession were growing. Brexit uncertainty and wider international worries had set a sombre mood. Sadly, those risks, though still significant, were soon eclipsed by the impacts of the coronavirus pandemic.